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2022, vol. 70, iss. 3-4, pp. 179-190
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Modelling the trend of energy productivity in the Serbian economy
Modeliranje trenda energetske produktivnosti u privredi Srbije
Alfa University, Faculty of Trade and Banking 'Janićije i Danica Karić', Belgrade, Serbia
Abstract
Energy productivity indicates the efficiency of energy use in production. Investment in energy efficient solutions, technologies and practices lead to increased energy productivity. It is often used as a suitable measure to compare the results of economic, energy and climate policies. In 2006, the Republic of Serbia became a member of the Energy Community, thus taking on the obligation to accept the energy acquis of the European Union. By this move, it also accepted the obligation to increase the use of renewables, its final energy consumption and energy services' efficiency. Energy productivity in Serbia has increased by 66.94%, in the period from 2000 to 2019. This growth was primarily driven by the national GDP high growth rate, but not by the reduction of energy consumption. Given the still extremely high Serbian energy intensity levels compared to the European and world average, the aim of this paper is to examine the expected future trends of this indicator. The inverse function econometric model best describes the energy productivity trend in Serbia. The paper concludes that its trend will most likely continue to move upwards, primarily because no significant changes in the Serbian economic and energy policy are expected and because, at least according to official statistics, the country's economy has not been largely affected by the global coronavirus pandemic COVID-19. Since the energy productivity improvement determines the competitiveness and performance of the economy, it is extremely important for Serbia to apply energy efficient technologies, and to implement its further structural changes.
Sažetak
Energetska produktivnost meri efikasnost korišćenja energije u proizvodnji. Ulaganja u energetski efikasna rešenja, tehnologije i prakse dovode do povećanja energetske produktivnosti. Ovaj pokazatelj se često koristi i kao pogodna mera za poređenje rezultata sprovedenih ekonomskih, energetskih i klimatskih politika. Republika Srbija je 2006. godine postala članica Energetske zajednice, čime je preuzela na sebe obavezu prihvatanja energetskih pravnih tekovina Evropske unije. Ona je ovim potezom takođe prihvatila i obavezu da poveća korišćenje obnovljivih izvora energije, energetsku efikasnost svoje finalne potrošnje energije i sektora energetskih usluga. Energetska produktivnost u Srbiji je u periodu od 2000. do 2019. godine porasla za čak 66,94%. Ovoliki rast ovog pokazatelja je, pre svega, bio uslovljen visokom stopom rasta domaćeg BDP-a, a ne smanjenjem potrošnje energije. Cilj ovog rada je da, s obzirom na još uvek izuzetno visoke nivoe energetskog intenziteta Srbije u odnosu na evropski i svetski prosek, ispita očekivane trendove budućeg kretanja ovog pokazatelja. Trend kretanja energetske produktivnosti u Srbiji na početku ovog veka najbolje opisuje ekonometrijski model inverzne funkcije. U radu se zaključuje da će se trend kretanja ovog pokazatelja i dalje najverovatnije kretati uzlaznom putanjom, pre svega jer se ne očekuju značajnije promene u ekonomskoj i energetskoj politici Srbije i jer, barem prema zvaničnim statističkim podacima, privreda zemlje do sada nije bila u većoj meri pogođena globalnom pandemijom koronavirusa kovid-19. Pošto poboljšanje energetske produktivnosti opredeljuje rast konkurentnosti i performansi privrede, za privredu Srbije je od izuzetnog značaja da primenjuje energetski efikasne tehnologije, kao i da dalje sprovodi svoje strukturne promene.
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